Breeders’ Cup Value Plays
October 25th, 2007By Jude T. Feld
Breeders’ Cup is the horseplayers favorite wagering venue. Massive prices on top-class horses is something punters dream about. Certainly there are solid favorites, but big money can be made when the chalk horse is vulnerable or a solid contender is overlooked by the betting public. Here are some of the better value plays based on the Monmouth Park morning line.
8th Race Friday) Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
MARYFIELD has competitive speed figures, hails from the barn of trainer Doug O’Neill and just won the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga. These are all good reasons to consider a wager on the daughter of Elusive Quality. The kicker is her off track record – three wins in four starts. With the track certain to have a little moisture in it, her 15-1 morning line is ludicrous.
9th Race Friday) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
CHEROKEE TRIANGLE ran an incredible 209 turf figure winning the Sunday Silence at Louisiana Downs. That’s the kind of number that older horses earn when they win Grade 1 races. Jockey Robby Albarado had high praise for this colt when we interviewed him this week and 10-1 on the morning line seems very juicy for the Mike Maker trainee.
4th Race Saturday) Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
GRACE ANATOMY broke in the air, seeming to lose all chance, in the Darley Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland. She rallied to make the lead in mid-stretch, only to tire in the final furlong. It is the same type of race Street Sense ran at Keeneland before he won the Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year. “The world’s greatest jockey,” Frankie Dettori, climbs aboard the daughter of Aldebaran this afternoon and hopefully the 10-1 a.m. price will stick.
5th Race Saturday) Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
SLEW’S TIZNOW is a beast. The imposing son of Tiznow chased Wicked Style in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, in a race around two-turns that he probably needed. His 58 4/5 blowout at the Lexington oval on Monday is certainly eye-catching as is his opening price of 15-1. He is bred to love an off track and his rider, Julien Leparoux, is no stranger to the winners’ circle.
8th Race Saturday) Net Jets Breeders Cup Mile (G1)
NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ is a freak on the turf. He has excellent tactical speed and a solid turn of foot. Jockey John Velazquez takes the reins this afternoon and that certainly won’t hurt the Barclay Tagg trainee’s chances one bit. At 8-1 on the morning line, he looks like a very solid play.
9th Race Saturday) Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1)
BALANCE obviously prefers dirt to Polytrack. She really hasn’t been herself since winning back-to-back graded stakes at Santa Anita last winter. Monmouth is more like an old California track than anyplace she’s raced in a while and according to her trainer, David Hofmans, she has acclimated extremely well to the Jersey Shore. Gotta like a Grade 1 winner at 20-1 on the morning line.
